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 "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER

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morf13
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:09 pm

Entropy wrote this over on ZKfacts...

"Four days after this letter was written, Zodiac (the real one) was back in San Francisco, writing to Melvin Belli about taking his "nineth and posibly tenth victom". Apparently, he forgot about writing from Fairfield threatening dozens of future victims all of the Bay area"

Thats a good point Entropy. However in the bleeding December 1969 knife letter, the writer claimed 38 victims would be his total. That was not released to the public. When Z wrote his exorcist letter, 4 years later in 1974, Z claimed 37! That's pretty close...maybe a coincidence, maybe not! Seems weird to me that Z would wind up with almost the exact same number of victims as was mentioned in the Exorcist letter, especially since Z couldnt know what the Bleeding Knife letter from 4 years earlier said, as it was not released. Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 1:56 am

I really think it's just coincidental that the number is close. However, I might have given this letter a little more credibility if Zodiac had claimed 38. If the number was exactly the same, then that's pretty weird. As they say, close but no cigar Smile
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:38 am

MrBungle wrote:
I really think it's just coincidental that the number is close. However, I might have given this letter a little more credibility if Zodiac had claimed 38. If the number was exactly the same, then that's pretty weird. As they say, close but no cigar Smile

Close enough for me to think its weird! He could have said 22, or 43, or 66, or 100, but he said 37..., only one number off of the bleeding knife number,maybe he wanted police to wonder who was going to be victim 38?
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:57 am

ChrisY posted this on another forum:

"The author claims to be the Zodiac. It was sent from Fairfield on December 16, 1969. It began with the words "This is the Zodiac speaking." It contained characteristic misspellings. It contained line drawings, as did the bus-bomb letter. These reasons alone make it an interesting topic of discussion.
The FBI did not affirm the letter, but said that it "may contain some distortion" and was "not written as freely" as other "threatening letters." This isn't exactly a statement that rules the letter out completely. Rather, it means that the result is "inconclusive." So, while offering the letter as genuine would be irresponsible, serious discussion would certainly be warranted, in my opinion, if only to rule the letter out conclusively. That has not been done to the satisfaction of many.
Authentication by handwriting analysis has proven to be subjective. When a letter examiner changes his or her opinion about the authenticity of a letter after being introduced to outside information not found in the document itself (as they did with the 1978 letter) it proves this point rather well. On the other hand, forensic methods such as DNA and fingerprints and certain other evidence provide more concrete proof of a letter's authenticity -provided the samples are pure and their source is beyond doubt
."


Chris....WELL SAID, and spoken for truth my Friend. cheers For those that seem to want to write this letter off quickly, perhaps more time and thought is needed?
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 9:50 am

Good observation about the victim total, morf.

I totally agree that, barring any DNA testing which will never occur, this letter will never definitively be ruled in or out as a genuine Zodiac communication and we all can just offer our opinions. Forty years after the fact, the job of scrutinizing these letters will only be pursued by us, the wacky internet Zodiac community. jocolor

For what it's worth, I'll offer a few reasons why I think this letter is likely NOT authentic:

- It has not been authenticated by any law enforcement agency or Zodiac himself. After Stine, Zodiac had the opportunity to authenticate any communication he wished by including a piece of Stine's shirt. There is nothing in this letter that couldn't have been gleaned from public knowledge of the case.

- The FBI, as you indicated, while not endorsing or dismissing the letter, indicates some disparity in handwriting and questions about "distortion".

- The letter is postmarked from Fairfield, CA, where several questionable Zodiac letters were postmarked from, including one just nine days earlier. The vast majority of Zodiac letters were written from San Francisco including the Belli letter, four days after this correspondence. Why write from Fairfield (threatening to kill in Fairfield and areas nearby) and then return days later to begin challenging SFPD once again (while seemingly ignoring the expansive threats made in this Fairfield letter)?

- The letter is written on lined paper, which was never used by Zodiac. It looks to be written far less freely than any other Zodiac letter, with the possible exception of the Belli letter.

- The cipher, if that's what it's intended to be, is sloppy as hell and completely indecipherable (6 letters, two of which are repeating). Zodiac's ciphers were always neatly aligned and carefully constructed, even if he made mistakes in his own ciphers. FWIW, all of the other letters from Fairfield contain "ciphers" and all have the same sloppy construction.

- This letter seems to focus on gore (The Bleeding Knife of Zodiac, "look for more blood"). This seems unlike Zodiac, IMO, who never even acknowledged his stabbing of Hartnell and Shepard and seemed more interested in documenting his own involvement with the crime than describing gore.

- The seemingly random threats to kill a specific number of people in given cities, several of which Zodiac never had any known connection with. Zodiac was always cagey about his victim count and never gave any indication of where he planned to kill.

- The parting "ha! ha! ha!"... Zodiac did seem to have a warped sense of humor but this ending seems juvenile, even by his standards.

Just my two cents...
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 1:10 pm

The thing is...if you are going to pretend to be the Zodiac killer in letters, you darn well better be able to somewhat mimic his writing style. Wouldn't starting off "this is the Zodiac speaking" almost be a given? Threatening cops, drawing a circle-cross, etc. ??

Had this author spoken about going to the mall, I don't think LE would have considered it being from Zodiac. Smile
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 1:38 pm

Another thing that flags me as a fake. It was written to the Examiner---with a full address.

After the Examiner's ridiculous request to have Zodiac turn himself in to them, he never wrote them again. What a joke of a request that was. Rolling Eyes
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:34 pm

Ed Neil has an interesting observation over at ZKF:

Quote :
Not only that, gentlemen, but in the 11-9-1969 letter, Z specifically said on page 1, "I shall no longer announce to anyone. when I comitt my murders, they shall look like routine robberies, killings of anger, + a few fake accidents, etc." Why was he 37 days later suddenly announcing his intention to kill 35 civilians and 3 cops? If he killed 3 cops in Fairfield, everyone would have known who did it! Did he forget he was going to "change the way the collecting of slaves"?

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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 6:59 pm

Of those letters posted the one about turning himself in looks the best but I still seriously doubt that one too.
'Z' was a known liar though so anything he wrote is suspicious.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:22 pm

We can speculate and theorize all kind of reasons why these Fairfield letters don't fit or do fit with the Belli letter or later Zodiac letters and events.

I am not aware of a previous serial killer directly threatening police. Taunting and playing games with police, yes, from Jack the Ripper to the Mad Bomber. But not directly threatening the lives of police officers. So I do find it interesting that the "hoaxer" correctly predicted the real Zodiac would later threaten police and even hint at credit for killing a cop. And the asking for help in the Fairfiled letter matching asking for help in the Belli letter.

Bottom line is this, for me: Robert Graysmith dismisses the Fairfield letters as fake, without telling us why (maybe Allen was placed somewhere other than Fairfield on those dates), but the FBI handwriting expert says that ALL the letters given to the FBI, including the Fairfield and Belli ones not written as freely, were "PROBABLY" done by "ONE WRITER".

Hmm, Robert Graysmith or the FBI handwriting expert? Who to go with here? scratch

The evidence is split, so for me, right now, knowing that the FBI probably had information we don't, and they have the expertise, not seeing enough to think they are wrong, I tend to let their verdict tip the scales slightly in favor of it being real.

Here is the one that said "probably."

Actually, and this very interesting, this examiner notes the distortion and less free writing on the Fairfield 12/7/69 letter (Q34 and 35), but then in regards to the new document, the April 28 1970 greeting card, with "I hope you enjoy..", he concludes that in regard to "ALL" the documents in the case given to the FBI (which clearly INCLUDES FAIRFIELD) they were "PROBABLY PREPARED BY ONE WRITER".




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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:41 pm

AK, they used "probably" once but "may be" many more times, and neither is a particularly ringing endorsement.

I decided to go back through all of the genuine Zodiac letters, and realized something...Zodiac really never did actually threaten to kill police at all. The closest things you can find are:

-April 20, 1970: "...I hope you do not think that I was the one who wiped out that blue meannie with a bomb at the cop station. Even though I talked about killing school children with one. It just wouldnt doo to move in on someone elses teritory. But there is more glory in killing a cop than a cid because a cop can shoot back." This really doesn't read as a direct threat if you think about it. In fact, he tries to distance himself from the murder of the cop.

-June 26, 1970: "I shot a man sitting in a parked car with a .38." While there was thought that he was referring to Officer Radetich, another man was subsequently arrested for the murder (he has since been released as the case was overturned). All the same, he never directly threatens a cop nor does he say he killed a cop here. And there were only thoughts that he was hinting at it here, but no evidence that he actually was.

He liked to screw with the cops, but never really threatened to murder any.

So basically, the direct threat to kill police in this letter ALSO differs from other Zodiac communications.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:00 pm

"But there is more glory in killing a cop than a cid because a cop can shoot back."

Hmm, pretty close to a threat. A veiled threat, but a threat. At least thats how I see it.

Radetich can be debated, but most think Z was hinting at credit for killing that policeman.

The FBI used "may" then used "probably". Take it for what its worth to you. If the FBI handwriting analyst said "probably" fake, I am sure you would be mentioning that! He said "probably" real, I give that some weight. It seems Morrill thought Fairfield probably fake. Morril had an excellent reputation, and knew the case well, but most agree he made a mistake on the April 78 letter. At that point in 12/69, they had not yet seen the many, many different styles of writing that Zodiac would use.

Who knows? To me the evidence - at this stage - leans slightly in favor of it being real.

If and when I get the envelope, that may tip it back to likely fake, or tip it to more likley real.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:42 pm

That 'glory in killing a cop' thing sounds like a threat to me, too.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:13 am

AK, I agree with you on Morrill. His conclusions haven't always been accepted and some (the RCC desk) don't make me too comfortable either. But remember Shimoda looked at most of them too (though he, too, once thought the '78 letter was real then reversed his position) and Terry Pascoe did as well. It wasn't just Morrill looking.

Most that thought Zodiac was hinting at Radetich were also looking at possibilities from that area. For all we know, if there truly was a murder to be associated, it could have been from miles away. Radetich was also the closest in time from the post date on the letter, which helped the police make their assumptions.

Nacht, in itself, that line could be construed as a threat, but that's why I reproduced the text leading up to it. If you include that full statement, it almost seems like an admittance more than a threat, at least to me.

Regardless, it's a pretty decent jump from hinting at killing a cop to coming straight out and saying "I AM GOING TO KILL COPS" and going as far as to number how many he would kill.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Mon Sep 06, 2010 1:28 am

" But remember Shimoda looked at most of them too (though he, too, once thought the '78 letter was real then reversed his position) and Terry Pascoe did as well. It wasn't just Morrill looking."

True, though I think Morrill was the main guy on the Zodiac case for Cal DOJ, then Pascoe took over. Shimoda worked for the Postal Inspectors.

All I know for sure is that no Fairfield letter appears on the SFPD list of Zodiac letters. I think SFPD relied on Morrill. And I think Graysmith did as well.

So though I have seen no opinion (pro, con or mixed) from Morrill (or Pascoe) on any Fairfield letter, it appears Morrill thought it likely fake, or was at best undecided. And the FBI thought them "probably" real. An expert gave a thumbs down on the 1990 card, but I think that was probably real, and a lot of others do as well.

And Terry Pascoe authenticated the 1986 letter as a real Zodiac letter, yet the majority of researchers seemed to dismiss that as qucikly as the Fairfield letters. I think the 86 letter was probably real, and I am undecided on the 87 letter. Morrill said all Riverside writings were likely Zodiac, yet some researchers disagree. I am not a handwriting expert, so unless something looks very fake to me or doesn't make sense in the context of known facts, I rely more on the expert opinions.

I am putting together several FOIA requests, to FBI, Cal DOJ and SFPD, to try to get all unreleased possible Zodiac letters and envelopes, along with any expert opinions. Once we have all that, we will be in a better position (hopefully) to make more informed judgements.

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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:19 am

I'm going to have to go through the later questionable letters in the morning, as I don't generally reference them, and as such, am not as overall familiar with them as the "classic" letters. I tend to have doubts on all of the later letters.

Just to be 100% factual, the "probably" came in reference to the "Dragon" card (undeniably a genuine communication). While it does refer to "all of the threatening letters from this case", it probably didn't hurt that the communication that was being discussed in the memo was definitely real.

As for Morrill, Shimoda & Pascoe, I think this very much speaks to how imperfect a "science" handwriting analysis truly is. I guess we'll have to wait until Barto comes back with her "expert" opinion Very Happy

God, I couldn't even TYPE that with a straight face!
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Thu Sep 09, 2010 9:35 am

AK Wilks wrote:

You can see they sent Morf the wrong envelope, seen below. They sent him the one that had the CANCER FLT 555. I have already requested the 12/16/69 Fairfield envelope, hopefully I will get it.




I wanted to clear up something about this envelope. I made FOIA requests for multiple questioned documents in the Z case. The FBI FOIA page said that you have to make a separate request for each questioned document. I think they may have answered my requests in one single mailing, and that is why I got two separate questioned docs in the same envelope. It wouldnt have been as confusing if they were in separate envelopes, or if they had a written explantion or other info for each document.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sat Sep 11, 2010 3:45 pm

morf13 wrote:
Finally, here it is, a suspected letter from Zodiac..."THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE"


The FBI did not give me any additional info about this letter, no facts, no dates, nothing.


Just something interesting (to me atleast), if you use those numbers and search for '31.6, -83.98' in GoogleMaps, you get a house in Georgia. Infact, the arrow is practically on top of the house, and it isn't in a crowded area either.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sat Sep 11, 2010 9:19 pm

pootyxx wrote:
morf13 wrote:
Finally, here it is, a suspected letter from Zodiac..."THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE"


The FBI did not give me any additional info about this letter, no facts, no dates, nothing.


Just something interesting (to me atleast), if you use those numbers and search for '31.6, -83.98' in GoogleMaps, you get a house in Georgia. Infact, the arrow is practically on top of the house, and it isn't in a crowded area either.

Is it in Atlanta??
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sat Sep 11, 2010 9:31 pm

Not sure IF I did it correctly. But using pootyxx info, I came up with: 872-972 Pearson Rd. Sylvester, GA 31791

2 hours 54 minutes from Atlanta.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 12, 2010 1:19 am

Using Itouchmap.com I get between Albany and Sylvester just to the right of a house.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 12, 2010 11:32 am

I wasn't sure if it meant anything to anyone, but I just thought it was a bit strange considering the location is exactly where the house is...

Is there any way we can find out if this means anything? Also, I'm not very farmilliar with the Atlanta Child Murders, but I seem to recall someone mentioning that there may be a connection between those and Z?
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 12, 2010 12:07 pm

A letter came in from "Zodiac" claiming credit for some of the Atlanta Child Murders.

http://zodiackillersite.forummotion.com/unconfirmed-zodiac-letters-mailings-general-discussion-f6/foia-request-atlanta-zodiac-letter-t475.htm

The FBI could NOT rule out the real Zodiac beiing the writer, but did not say it was him either.

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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Sun Sep 12, 2010 12:12 pm

Well, then this becomes even more interesting then, and worrying.

EDIT: I've always thought that the Halloween card was odd and after looking I've found another interesting coincidence. Z mentions '14' twice, and I've always assumed it meant the amount of victims. However, there is a Highway 14 in Georgia that is (once again according to GoogleMaps) 2 hours and 54 minutes away from the Pearson Road address. Does anyone think it's possible that perhaps he was giving us clues? I have no idea what for though.
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PostSubject: Re: "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER   Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:51 pm





Just for fun, I did a map from (A) Iva, SC to (B) Sylvester, GA to (C) Leon County, FL.

Nothing really leaps out at me, though they do form more or less a very rough line.
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